These novels were inspired by my lifelong interest in economics and economic history, particularly the events that occurred between the two world wars. Prior to that, the conventional wisdom believed that free-market capitalism was a successful economic system that would provide both productive and allocative efficiency. It was argued that an unfettered and unregulated market economy would offer the benefits of sustained and sustainable growth that would add to the welfare of members of society as a whole. In the United States, It was popularised by the aphorism that ‘A rising tide lifts all boats’. This has been used by right-wing politicians to justify dismantling the remnants of the welfare state and government regulations introduced in the 1930s and expanded throughout the 1950s and 1960s in the United States.
As early as the late 19th century, it was recognised that unfettered and unregulated capitalism was inherently flawed as it primarily delivered wealth and security to the top 1% of the population. This caused many economists and some politicians to rethink the ideas and theories that had been accepted and developed from the writings of Adam Smith in the 18th century through to Alfred Marshall’s contributions to economic theory in the early part of the 20th century. Indeed, as a direct result of these concerns during the so-called Gilded Age, legislation was introduced in the US to dismantle monopolies and prevent the monopolisation of markets; namely the Sherman Act of 1890 and the Clayton Act of 1914. Since the election of president Ronald Reagan in 1981, government departments, that were meant to provide constraints on the abuses of capitalism, have been gutted such that they now have little power stop the concentration of markets or to counter the monied interests that have taken over US politics. Here I include The Federal Trade Commission, The Securities and Exchange Commission, and The Department of Justice.
It became clear to observers of history that after the end of the first world war, the capitalist system was in crisis. Between 1929 and 1932 worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 15%. In self-defeating legislation, conservative politicians world-wide introduced protectionist policies that directly resulted in a 50% drop in world trade. The 10 year period prior to WWII, what we now term the Great Depression, saw persistent unemployment in developed economies of between 20% and 25% of the labour force. The so-called Roaring 20s, were hardly boom times and were by no means beneficial to the general population. Mass migrations and starvation were endemic in western democracies. In the UK and the US, politicians and economists attempted to formulate alternative solutions to solve the apparent breakdown of the economic order. Some politicians adopted solutions that can best be described as doing nothing, characterising their economic policies as laissez-faire, laissez passer. Indeed, Herbert Hoover, the 31st US president who served from 1929 to 1933, proposed economic policies that would drastically cut the size of government and balance the federal budget. He argued that this would involve ‘putting the government’s house in order’. His policy solutions to raise taxes and cut government expenditures were roundly dismissed in the general election of 1932 in which Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected in a landslide victory over Hoover who carried only six states. As John Maynard Keynes argued in his 1936 magnum opus, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, a non-interventionist approach to governing would only worsen the already dire situation in the United States and the rest of the world. He was proved correct.
At the same time, another ideological approach was adopted by the Soviet Union. As with all developed countries, it was also affected by the downturn in world economic activity. When the Russian revolution ended in June 1923, Joseph Stalin took power and introduced a system of societal organisation called communism. Under this system, all factors of production, land, labour, and capital, would be collectively owned by the people (in common) and each person would contribute according to their abilities and needs. Stalin immediately recognised that this economic system required centralised decision-making by a strong and centralised government that would direct the factors of production to their optimal productive uses. Hence, the Soviet Union adopted an untouchable dictator who would be chosen by a central committee comprised of elitist members of society.
In continental Europe, a similar system was introduced but with contrasting rhetoric. Extreme right-wing ideology was chosen as the way forward and fascism was the result. Elections were suspended and, as with the Soviet Union, a governing cabal put in place to make decisions that would allegedly benefit society as a whole. Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Francisco Franco, and in Portugal, Antonio de Oliveira Salazar, rose to power by persuading their people to blame the weak and sometimes chaotic democratic system for their country’s economic plights. Each proto-dictator managed to convince their people that a strong leader was required to return their countries to pre-depression prosperity and greatness.
The playbook Hitler adopted was set out in his two volume book, Mein Kampf (My Struggle). He penned this while incarcerated in Munich’s Landsberg prison, having been convicted of treason. In November, 1923, he and others attempted to overthrow the democratically elected Weimar Republic government with what is now termed the Beer Hall Putsch. The world is fully aware of the consequences of Hitler’s 12 year reign in which he suspended democratic processes while attempting to militarily dominate Europe. During the second world war, 75 million people were killed. This included 20 million military personnel and 40 million civilians, many of whom died because of deliberate genocide, massacres, mass-bombings, disease, and starvation.
By turning to fiction rather than the more conventional academic route, I hoped that by telling stories set in the 1930s, my readers might better appreciate the current dangers facing American and European societies. In the three novels, I attempt to underscore the observation that the very same rhetoric, used by Heinrich Himmler and Joseph Göbbels, is now being employed by right-wing leaders in the US at both the state and federal levels. There, extreme right-wing politicians and their billionaire financial backers are actively and sometimes successfully subverting elections at both the state and federal level. As the US general election is less than a year away, we are now seeing attacks on their left-wing political opponents, employing the fascist rhetoric and policies so successful in Nazi Germany in the mid-1930s. Just this week, former president Donald J Trump called his political opponents “vermin”, asserted that immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country”, and that when he returned to the White House, he will “crush the entire existence” of his opponents. This is what precisely what Hitler achieved in 1934 in the Röhm-Putsch, what we call the Night of the Long Knives, and what Stalin accomplished in the Great Purge in 1937.
The dangerous trend, whereby an authoritarian leader takes power in a previously democratic state, is currently being repeated by a number of prominent politicians around the world. In continental Europe and South America, extreme authoritarian factions are gaining ground. Geert Wilders’ far-right party secured the most seats in the recent Dutch elections and tv pundit Javier Milei’s right-wing victory in Argentina has followed elections this year of authoritarian and populist leaders in Finland and Greece. These wannabe strongmen are a growing threat to democracy and civil rights, adding to the dangers posed by Putin’s Russia, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the populist national-conservative party leader in Poland.
On the other hand there is some good news. Last week it was announced that, as a result of July’s snap General Election, Spain’s incumbent Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has retained power. After months of uncertainty, negotiations have just cemented victory for the PSOE. Sánchez negotiated a coalition with the left-wing Podemos party and the ERC, the Catalan left-wing Republican party led by Orial Junqueras, that would continue to control the Spanish parliament over the conservative coalition parties in Spain, PP and VOX.
It is my intention that these novels provide not only entertaining and fast moving spy stories, but also serve as a warning. Up to now, western countries have been able to maintain their democracies and the consequential civil rights and freedoms for their people. This has been primarily because there are constitutional and a legal safeguards for elections in place that have ensured that a proto-dictator is unable to take power by subverting democratic principles. Events that will play out over the next year will determine whether democracy prevails or fascism succeeds as it did in the 1930s.